MLB DFS: DraftKings’ best and worst games for Wednesday, July 21
Let me start by saying that Wednesday’s launch options are not for the faint of heart. Lance McCullers ($ 10,100) is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings and while he won’t be my most possessed pitcher, he has a semi-favorable showdown against the Cleveland Indians and he’s been hot lately. McCullers is followed by Robbie Ray ($ 9,900), who faces one of the best batting teams in the Boston Red Sox. Since this is a somewhat small main eight game roster, the ownership is going to be more condensed. On rosters of less than 10 games, it can be helpful to know who will own it so that you can leverage the rest of the field. While the weather has been a problem the last few days, let’s hope for a main slate with no weather Wednesday night!
Favorite pitcher: Adam Wainwright ($ 9,300) vs. Chicago Cubs
Of the options available to us on Wednesday, Adam Wainwright appears to be one of the safest bets to return some value. The three-time All-Star is having a kind of rebirth season for the Cardinals of Saint-Louis, posting his best xFIP (3.80) since the 2015 season and his best strikeout rate (22.9%) since the 2013 season. Wainwright won’t miss a lot of guys with his low swinging hit rate of 7 , 8%, but he won’t need to do much to thwart the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday night. The Cubs will be sellers by the end of July trade deadline and they have the worst strikeout rate, second worst AVG, third worst OBP and fifth worst wRC + against RHP this season.
Least favorite pitcher: Erick Fedde ($ 8,100) vs. Miami Marlins
There is absolutely no way you will catch me paying more than $ 8,000 for Erick Fedde. My intuition tells me not to have any Fedde stock, even in a mature clash against the Miami Marlins. And unlike Monday – when I had the same feeling with Kyle Gibson – I will avoid Fedde altogether. Over the season, Fedde has a WHIP of 1.44 and his home numbers are not very promising. Within the boundaries of the national park, Fedde allows 1.2 HR / 9, a WHIP of 1.53 and a BABIP of .305. While the Marlins have beaten RHP’s second-highest rate over the past month, I’ll be using unique Miami pieces if I see they won’t have much ownership. I love having the opportunity to target awful pitchers that are overpriced on smaller slates.
Preferred battery: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Garrett Richards
The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays showdown was postponed Tuesday, which only delays the inevitable for Garrett Richards. Richards is set to start for the Red Sox on Wednesday night and I expect the veteran right-hander to be set on fire by Toronto’s searing sticks. Since the MLB began cracking down on banned substances, Richards has seen its site turnover decline. With his fastball at the lowest speed of his career, Richards is dropping a massive 53.8% hard hit rate since early June and a 50.2% hard hit rate for the entire season. On top of that, Richards has a dismal BABIP of 0.347 and an output speed of 91.9 MPH, which could get him in trouble against the Blue Jays. As a team, Toronto has the second-lowest strikeout rate and the fourth-best ISO for RHP in the past 30 days. Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Teoscar Hernandez will be the favorite guys to target. Using Randal Grichuk, Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel and Reese McGuire or Danny Jansen is one way to get exposure in Toronto with a bit smaller property.
Second preferred stack: Houston Astros vs. RHP Eli Morgan
There’s not much to say about why the Houston Astros are one of my favorite stacks to use on Wednesday. Eli Morgan, the pitcher they will face off against, has an inflated 3.08 HR / 9 and a BABIP of .342 in his first 26.1 innings pitched in 2021. During his first year in the majors, Morgan drew a massive 42.9% hard contact rate and a huge fly ball rate of 54.2%. In his first six starts, Morgan allowed more than 3 earned runs in each of them and at least one homerun in each of those starts. Even though a few Astros members are in the midst of slump, swinging the bat at Morgan could be the perfect cure for their recent slippage. Against Morgan, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Gurriel should be the popular picks. You’ll also want to include Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Myles Straw, and Jason Castro in some of your training.
Favorite: Akil Baddoo ($ 3,300) vs. RHP Jordan Lyles
After my mistake of using Gibson as the primary launcher on Monday, I adjust accordingly. i will use the Detroit Tigers as one of my stacks on Wednesday and the player I am targeting the most is Akil Baddoo, for a cheap price of $ 3,300 on DraftKings. While Detroit has struggled mightily this season, Baddoo has been a bright spot within the team. Facing RHP this season, Baddoo recorded an impressive .402 wOBA, 156 wRC + and .257 ISO in 199 plate appearances. It also helps that Baddoo has been in tears recently, recording four multi-game hits in his last seven appearances, including two homers in his last four. What makes Baddoo an even better game on Wednesday is the fact that he faces off against Jordan Lyles. Up to this point in the season, Lyles has a hard contact rate of 38.5% and a fly ball rate of 41.1%. Additionally, Lyles gave up 1.88 HR / 9 and an exit speed of 90.9 MPH, setting Baddoo and the Tigers up for success in the hitting department.